Living Well in Austin | October 29, 2026 | Albert Allen, Compass

Austin Housing Market Update: October 2026

By Albert Allen, Austin Luxury Real Estate Advisor | Compass | Living Well in Austin

What's happening in the Austin housing market this fall? Are home prices falling? Are buyers gaining negotiating power? And why are neighborhoods like Northwest Hills performing differently from the broader market?

In this October 2026 Austin housing market update, we'll examine the latest home prices, sales activity, housing inventory, new construction, and luxury real estate trends throughout Austin and Central Texas.

Reporting note: The latest official monthly figures are from September 2026. October activity reflects preliminary MLS data collected through October 29, 2026.

Source: Unlock MLS, September 2026 Central Texas Housing Report, City of Austin.

Austin Home Prices: Are Prices Falling in October 2026?

The latest official figures show that the City of Austin's median sale price reached $570,958 in September 2026, an increase of 4.2% from September 2025.

Across the broader five-county Austin metropolitan area, the median sale price was $421,000, up 1.4% year over year.

However, the number of completed transactions declined. City of Austin closed sales fell 12.7%, while sales across the larger Austin metropolitan area declined 14.8%.

This distinction matters. Fewer sales do not automatically mean that every property's value is declining. Median prices can also be affected by which types of homes happen to sell during a given month.

City of Austin Housing Market Statistics: September 2026

Source: Unlock MLS September 2026 Central Texas Housing Report, released October 13, 2026.

October 2026 Austin Housing Market: Early Sales Activity

Preliminary MLS records from October 1 through October 29 show 572 closed sales for properties with an Austin MLS city designation, compared with 708 closings during the same period in 2025.

That represents a preliminary decline of approximately 19.2%.

At the time of the October 29 data pull, there were also 4,550 active listings and 886 properties under contract.

October results are not final. Additional transactions may be reported after the data pull, and the MLS city field is not identical to the City of Austin municipal boundary.

Albert's Perspective: A slowdown in transactions is not the same thing as a collapse in home values. Buyers have more opportunities to compare properties and negotiate terms, while sellers need to be more intentional about pricing, preparation and understanding their competition.

Is Austin a Buyer's Market or Seller's Market?

With 5.4 months of inventory in the September 2026 City of Austin report, housing supply suggests relatively balanced conditions, with some advantages for buyers.

However, Austin is not one uniform real estate market. Inventory and competition differ considerably between Central Austin, Northwest Hills, luxury properties, condominiums, and new construction communities.

For buyers, additional inventory can create opportunities to negotiate price, closing costs, repairs or financing assistance. For sellers, it reinforces the importance of accurate pricing and a property-specific marketing plan.

Northwest Hills Austin Housing Market Update

Northwest Hills and the surrounding 78731 ZIP code offer an important contrast to the broader Austin real estate market.

According to the supplied Unlock MLS data, ZIP 78731 recorded 288 closed sales from January through September 2026, compared with 226 during the same period in 2025.

That represents an increase of approximately 27%.

With 107 active listings and an average third-quarter sales pace of approximately 33 homes per month, ZIP 78731 had an estimated 3.2 months of housing inventory.

Median closed prices in the ZIP code were:

• July 2026: $1,060,000
• August 2026: $1,095,000
• September 2026: $1,120,500

These numbers should be interpreted carefully. ZIP 78731 includes Northwest Hills, Highland Park West, Cat Mountain and other nearby neighborhoods. It is not a Northwest Hills subdivision-only analysis.

What Does This Mean for Northwest Hills Buyers and Sellers?

For buyers, properly priced homes with desirable property characteristics may face more competition than the Austin-wide inventory figures suggest.

For sellers, home condition, renovation quality, lot characteristics, topography, views and nearby competing properties can influence value considerably.

Albert's Perspective: Northwest Hills is a good example of why I don't rely on citywide averages when advising clients. Even within the same ZIP code, two homes can appeal to different buyers because of lot characteristics, renovation level, architecture, views and location. A neighborhood-specific comparative market analysis is much more useful than applying one broad price trend.

For additional local market reports and neighborhood information, explore NorthwestHillsAustin.com.

Austin New Construction Homes: Inventory and Builder Incentives

New construction continues to be an important part of the Austin and Central Texas housing market, particularly for buyers comparing new homes with existing resale properties.

In the October 29 MLS snapshot, new construction, under-construction and to-be-built properties accounted for approximately 15% of active Austin listings but nearly 20% of properties under contract.

Builders may offer mortgage rate buydowns, closing-cost assistance, design-center credits or other incentives. However, not every builder lists its available inventory in the MLS, and offers can vary by community, home and financing terms.

The September 2026 median closing price for new construction in the supplied dataset was $591,364, compared with $576,239 one year earlier.

Preliminary October records showed 52 new-construction closings through October 29, compared with 81 during the same dates in 2025.

Should You Buy New Construction or Resale in Austin?

The right choice depends on the property's location, financing, construction quality, builder incentives, timeline and total ownership costs.

Compare the complete purchase, including property taxes, HOA fees, upgrades, warranty provisions and the mortgage payment, rather than simply comparing advertised prices.

Albert's Perspective: When I evaluate new construction against resale homes, I look beyond the headline price. A financing incentive can be valuable, but so can an established lot, mature landscaping, a renovated interior or a better location. The strongest decision comes from comparing the actual terms and property characteristics side by side.

Austin Luxury Real Estate Market: Homes Priced at $2.5 Million and Above

Austin's luxury real estate market has shown a different pattern from the broader housing market in 2026.

From January through September, 248 homes priced at $2.5 million or more closed in the City of Austin, compared with 205 during the same period in 2025.

That represents approximately 21% more luxury transactions year over year.

Third-quarter luxury closings increased from 60 in 2025 to 84 in 2026, a 40% gain.

Despite stronger year-to-date transactions, the luxury segment still had approximately nine months of estimated inventory at the recent sales pace, compared with nearly 15 months a year earlier.

As of October 29, the market showed 238 active luxury listings, 31 under contract and 16 recorded October closings.

What Makes the Austin Luxury Housing Market Different?

Luxury properties are especially sensitive to differences in architecture, lot size, waterfront access, views, renovation quality, privacy, location and the availability of comparable homes.

Downtown Austin luxury condominiums and penthouses also require consideration of building amenities, HOA fees, reserves, parking, views and ownership costs.

Luxury homes in Westlake Hills, Tarrytown, Lake Austin and Central Austin can have substantially different characteristics and buyer considerations.

Albert's Perspective: At the luxury level, broad market statistics are only the beginning. The right analysis considers what makes a home distinctive, how it compares with both recent closed sales and current competition, and which aspects of the property are most relevant to qualified buyers.

What Should Austin Home Buyers Do in This Market?

Buying a home in Austin during a more balanced market can offer additional flexibility, but buyers should still make decisions based on their individual finances and long-term goals.

• Compare recently closed sales with current asking prices.
• Evaluate your full monthly payment, including taxes and insurance.
• Consider negotiating repairs, closing costs or seller concessions where appropriate.
• Compare resale properties against builder incentives.
• Understand inventory and competition in your specific neighborhood and price range.
• Review the property's physical condition and future resale considerations.

What Should Austin Home Sellers Do in This Market?

Sellers should approach today's Austin housing market with a well-supported pricing strategy and a clear understanding of competing inventory.

• Price using relevant recent closed comparable sales.
• Evaluate competing active and pending properties.
• Consider the impact of condition, renovations and property presentation.
• Understand the available buyer pool for your price range.
• Consider a tailored pre-listing preparation and marketing strategy.
• Review all offers based on price, financing, contingencies, timing and execution risk.

Compass Concierge and private-marketing options may be appropriate for some sellers, subject to eligibility, program terms and applicable rules.

Albert Allen's Perspective on the Austin Housing Market

Frequently Asked Questions About the Austin Housing Market

Are Austin home prices going down in 2026?

The City of Austin's median sale price increased 4.2% year over year in September 2026 to $570,958. However, individual home values vary by neighborhood, property type, condition and recent comparable sales.

Is Austin a buyer's market in October 2026?

The latest official City of Austin report showed 5.4 months of housing inventory, suggesting relatively balanced conditions with opportunities for buyers in some segments. Certain neighborhoods and price ranges remain more competitive than others.

Is now a good time to buy a house in Austin?

That depends on your financing, monthly payment, long-term goals and the property you're considering. Some buyers may benefit from greater selection and negotiating opportunities, while mortgage costs remain an important consideration.

Is now a good time to sell a home in Austin?

Homes continue to sell, but pricing, preparation, marketing and neighborhood-specific competition matter. A comparative market analysis can help determine how a property should be positioned.

How is the Northwest Hills Austin real estate market performing?

The broader 78731 ZIP code recorded approximately 27% more closed sales from January through September 2026 than during the same period of 2025. Estimated housing supply was approximately 3.2 months, although ZIP-wide figures are not identical to Northwest Hills subdivision data.

Are Austin luxury homes selling in 2026?

Yes. City of Austin homes priced at $2.5 million and above recorded 248 closings from January through September 2026, compared with 205 during the same period in 2025. However, estimated luxury inventory remained substantial.

Are Austin new construction homes offering incentives?

Some Austin-area builders offer mortgage financing incentives, closing-cost assistance and design credits. Availability and terms vary by builder, community, property and financing arrangements.

About Albert Allen | Austin Luxury Real Estate

Albert Allen is an Austin luxury real estate advisor with Compass, representing buyers and sellers of luxury homes, high-rise condominiums, penthouses and distinctive residential properties throughout Austin and Central Texas. Through Living Well in Austin, Albert provides strategic guidance on luxury home buying and selling, property valuation, market trends, pricing and property positioning.

Albert Allen provides personalized real estate representation for luxury condominiums and urban residences in Downtown Austin, as well as luxury homes and distinctive residential properties in Westlake Hills, Tarrytown, Lake Austin, Northwest Hills and Central Austin. His approach emphasizes neighborhood-specific knowledge, thoughtful pricing, skilled negotiation, and a clear understanding of the property considerations that influence buying and selling decisions.

Albert's market coverage also includes new construction and residential real estate throughout the greater Austin area. Through Living Well in Austin, he helps buyers and sellers understand local market conditions and evaluate their real estate options with confidence.

Austin Housing Market Data Sources and Methodology

• Unlock MLS, September 2026 Central Texas Housing Report, released October 13, 2026.
• Unlock MLS Matrix data cited in the October 29, 2026 market report draft.
• October 2026 activity is preliminary through October 29 and may change as additional transactions are reported.
• Official September City of Austin figures and October MLS city-field data are not geographically identical.
• ZIP 78731 covers a broader area than Northwest Hills alone.
• Luxury market figures refer to City of Austin properties priced at $2.5 million and above.
• Estimated inventory calculations for ZIP 78731 and luxury properties use recent sales pace and active supply, rather than the same methodology as the published citywide statistic.
• MLS new-construction figures do not include every builder's available inventory.

Market information is provided for general educational purposes. Individual property values, market conditions and transaction outcomes vary. This article does not constitute an appraisal or guarantee of future real estate performance.

Albert Allen | Compass | Living Well in Austin